CIA was not "certain" about Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad
Describing the intelligence trail and runup to the U.S. military raid on Osama bin Laden's compound, John Yoo wrote that "the CIA became certain that the al Qaeda leader was hiding inside."
That's inaccurate. Many news outlets have reported that the U.S. had circumstantial evidence of bin Laden's presence, but no clear proof. CIA director Leon Panetta made this explicit in the aftermath, according to the Washington Post (via SFGate):
CIA Director Leon Panetta, who supervised the operation, said in interviews that U.S. intelligence agencies never had photographs or other proof that bin Laden was living at the compound in Pakistan that was attacked. Panetta told Time magazine that analysts were only 60 to 80 percent confident bin Laden would be found.
"We never had direct evidence that he in fact had ever been there or was located there," Panetta said in a separate interview with "PBS NewsHour."